Gator Nation News

Commentary:What Should Football Fans Expect This Season? Who Knows?

After back-to-back mediocre seasons, this could be the year the Gators return to glory ... or again come up short, columnist Pat Dooley says.

Billy Napier enters Year Two with a brand-new team and a chance to put last season in the rearview mirror. A tough schedule will be a challenge. Fan support might be, too.

It’s a little difficult to get a grip on the typical Gator football fan heading into the Summer of Hate. I call it that because the nattering nabobs of negativism are going to be everywhere in the hot and sticky months of June, July and August.

I can’t remember an offseason with less optimism. Even the summer 1979 going into an 0-10-1 season had hope because there was a new sheriff in town, Charley Pell.

This summer is all about Billy Napier and his gigantic staff and gigantic building and fleet of fancy golf carts and ginormous recruiting dinners at Spurrier’s. After back-to-back 6-7 seasons — which nobody can blame on him — there are four distinct fan camps, ranging from bright-eyed to bummed out.

We’ll do this in quarters (math isn’t involved so don’t stop reading). These are the types of Gator fans right now:

  • Sunshine Fans see Napier’s vision and are willing to be patient. They have hope for this season and believe it still matters when an athlete puts on that orange helmet.
  • Cloudy Fans want to believe. They really do. They’ll be riding shotgun on the bandwagon, but that just makes it easier to jump off if the wagon throws a wheel.
  • Agi-Gators are agitated. Over the last decade, our football program has given them plenty of reasons to be. This group is where my saying comes from that nobody suffers winning like Gator fans.
  • And, finally, there are Pretend Not to Care Fans who call talk shows to say they’re apathetic and post mean thoughts in chatrooms and on Twitter. They’ll swear they’ve given up on the Gators but will be first in line to buy merchandise if the team wins another SEC title.

There are more fans in the first two categories, but the last two make the most noise. They don’t understand the damage that being negative does to the program (but that’s another column for another day). This one is about what to expect this season.

On paper, it looks like a mediocre football team facing a schedule that’s tougher than last year. One reason is the perception that Napier is starting over, that last season was his Year Zero. And that’s true. He came in, tried to get everyone on the same page and watched a bunch of players leave because they didn’t want to go to class or show up on time.

Here’s a sobering thought (Gator fans may want to avert their eyes): our five biggest games in 2023 are Utah, Tennessee, Georgia, LSU and FSU. In those, Florida is a 65.5-point underdog.

OK, I combined the early spreads on Draft Kings. Georgia is a 21.5-point favorite. FSU, which showed patience with its coach, is 9.5 — in Gainesville. Aye yai yai! That’s the way it is. And there’s only one way to change it: win more games.

Of course, it wasn’t that long ago that the Gators fired a coach two years after he was named SEC Coach of the Year. Another after he twice won the SEC East. A third after three straight NY6 Bowls. That’s part of the problem.

And part of the solution.

Florida needs to build, not throw a bunch of magic beans in the ground and wish for the best. Winning needs to be consistent and expected. That may take a while. Still, there are four ways this season might go (with a song to illustrate each):

1. “One Step Beyond” by Madness.
Look, anything is possible. Maybe the Gators go to Utah, win and change everyone’s perspective. Maybe this is a team like TCU last year that wins a ton of games by a few points. There’s a chance the Gators go One … Step … Beyond. (You need to be familiar with the song.)

2. “Respectable” by The Rolling Stones.
Last season was headed in that direction until Vanderbilt and then a bad matchup in the bowl game. Respectable is a possibility. To me that would be 8-4. Maybe 7-5, because even with a bowl loss we’d avoid a third straight losing season.

3. “It’s the Same Old Song” by The Four Tops.
Another losing season. No visible signs it’s getting better. A feeling of malaise in the program. A loss to a team we have no business losing to. A third-in-a-row loss to Kentucky. You know where I’m going with this.

4. “Road to Nowhere” by The Talking Heads.
This is the least likely path. Progress will be made, right? A real bad season is not out of the realm of possibility. I bet the Gators are underdogs in at least seven games. A 4-8 season would put Napier on the hotseat — and not the perceived one people pretend is real.

Hey, you have a choice this summer. So be a Sunshine Fan. It’ll be a lot more fun … at least until the season starts.

Sportswriter Pat Dooley (BSJ ’76) covered the Gators for The Gainesville Sun for 33 years until his retirement in 2020. He still shares his love for Gator sports through his podcast, “Another Dooley Noted,” and WRUF radio program, “Dooley’s Back 9.” His Gator Nation News column does not necessarily reflect the views of the University of Florida.

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