Commentary:10 Ways to Win 10…Really

I’m not sure I’ve ever seen it like this, and I’d like to think I’ve seen it all. Like, 20-something years ago when a police officer pulled up to my house and I was wondering what I did wrong. He rolled down the window and asked, “So, whatcha think?”

That’s what the post-spring-football-game world is usually like in Gainesville: hot, nervous, excited, worried and still sticking your chest out to brag about our school.

This year is different.

Now, to be clear, I don’t ask for these opinions — they’re offered by famous professionals in every sport…by restaurant owners and bag boys at Publix…by my friends and people I don’t know. They all want to know what I think. But really what they want is to tell me what they think. I’m used to it.

It’s a little crazier heading into the 2024 season.

Fans talk about special team issues. And Billy calling his own plays. And the schedule. And then they want to talk about DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz and Tre Wilson, and their voices go up an octave. In the end, however, they have a number in mind. This is where it gets wacky.

Usually, when you go into a new season everybody predicts a win-loss record within two or three games. You know, 7-5 is the floor, 10-2 the ceiling. Or 6-6 is the floor and 9-3 is the ceiling.

This year? The floor is in the basement. The ceiling requires a climb through the attic. I’ve been told everything from a 3-9 prediction (that person asked where the three wins were going to come from) to 10-2 and the College Football Playoffs. That’s quite a disparity.

Some of you are laughing.

Yeah, after going through Muschamp and McElwain and the final five games last season, we know Florida can reach new lows. But how in the world can you get this team to 10 wins?

Well, I have a plan.

Here are 10 Things that need to happen for the Gators to win 10 games this fall. (Hey, you have more than three months until the first game. Enjoy it.)

1. Coaches make a difference
   I’ll just say it: there were coaches last year who simply did a poor job, especially on defense. Remember LSU’s Jayden Daniels running around the Gators like it was flag football and he forgot to wear flags? Billy Napier made wholesale changes and players have been raving about new secondary coach Will Harris and co-defensive coordinator Ron Roberts bringing the kind of veteran presence this team needs.
2. Mertz stays healthy
   Lagway is the future of Florida football; Mertz is the present. The number of plays the Gators can run with the senior is a lot higher than the ones the team can run with a freshman. Mertz is the leader, and he had a great season in 2023. If we’d had a defense, we could have easily won nine games. Yes, we want to see packages for Lagway, but the Gators will only go as far as Mertz takes us.
3. Depth is real
   Napier talked all through spring about this being his best team at UF. I think it’s the best since 2020. We all know a few injuries can send a team reeling. In his first two seasons, Napier talked a lot about creating depth. This year, he’s talked about this being a deep team. We hope he’s right because players will miss time with twisted ankles and shoulder stingers.
4. Embrace the schedule
   I pointed out on GatorWire.com that if you go line by line, last year’s schedule was tougher than this year’s. We only have four true road games in 2024 and players would rather play quality teams than FCS opponents.
5. Find a No. 2
   We know Florida has an elite receiver in Wilson. I also like Kahleil Jackson and Marcus Burke. But the lack of a second great receiver could be a problem if someone doesn’t step up, like Chimere Dike (transfer from Wisconsin).
6. Defensive line, meet secondary
   The back end of Florida’s defense is an easy target for naysayers, but so much of that comes down to pressure on the quarterback through the pass rush. The Gators had little to offer last season. We only had 10 sacks from defensive linemen. We get on the secondary for only having three interceptions, but those two elements go hand in hand.
7. Special teams
   Napier has said to every group he’s spoken to that Florida was Top 20 in special teams last season. And they were really good … unless they needed to be. A shanked punt here, a missed field goal there. The real problem was lining up. Twice in 2023 we had the same numbered player on the field (the refs missed one). And we struggled to get 11 players on the field too often. In this spring’s game, there was an extra point where we only had 10 players on defense. Let’s go, guys. This isn’t rocket science.
8. Can Lagway be Tebow light?
   He could be the missing link in terms of what this offense can be in 2024 — he has the running ability Mertz lacks. We’re not asking him to run over people like Timmy did, but he will be asked as a freshman to pick up big first downs. (Maybe Florida can bring back the jump pass.)
9. The portal
   It’s the way college football is now. You can yell for these new players to get off our lawn or welcome them. The Gators are trying to build through recruiting high school players but hope the portal can fill holes like scientists did with dinosaur DNA in Jurassic Park.
10. Fan support
    As much as we like to complain about the “Gidiots,” every school has fans who want everyone fired after the first turnover of the season. Gator fans showed how much we want our coaches to succeed when we sold out nine games in two losing seasons. If you ain’t a Gator, well, let everyone know before the season that you’re petitioning for divorce.We’ll stay home with the kids.